No New Steel Import Curbs for Now: What It Means for Steel Prices and Buyers in October 2026
Steel buyers in India are entering October with another important policy development to consider. According to a Reuters report on India's steel import restrictions published on October 7, 2026, the Steel Ministry is unlikely to seek additional import restrictions, and the existing safeguard duty is expected to remain unchanged. The decision comes amid persistently high domestic steel prices, which have put increasing pressure on manufacturers’ procurement budgets.
For businesses tracking the steel safeguard duty in India, the announcement raises important questions about import competition, domestic pricing and future purchasing decisions. Here is what the latest development means for manufacturers, fabricators and steel procurement teams.
Key Takeaways
India's decision to maintain the existing steel safeguard duty provides some policy clarity.
The current safeguard measure covers specified flat steel products.
Stainless steel remains outside the scope of this safeguard duty.
Rising figures of steel imports in India continue to influence domestic market competition.
Buyers should monitor steel prices in India in October 2026 before planning purchases.
Table of Contents
What Did the Steel Ministry Decide?
On October 7, 2026, the Steel Ministry reportedly declined requests from domestic steelmakers for additional measures against imported steel.
The development followed an industry request to raise the safeguard duty above 20%, despite the existing duty of 11.5%. Higher duties were reportedly not under consideration amid elevated domestic steel prices, with Ministry of Steel data published by the Press Information Bureau indicating year-on-year price increases of 21.0% to 28.8% across major steel products.
The decision carries three important implications:
No additional restrictions: The government is not planning fresh steel import curbs for now.
Existing duty unchanged: The safeguard duty remains at its current scheduled rate.
Domestic prices under scrutiny: Higher steel prices are an important consideration in the government's decision.
For buyers, the announcement provides some near-term clarity on steel import duty in India for 2026, although trade investigations and future policy reviews could still affect the market.
What Is the Steel Safeguard Duty in India?
A safeguard duty is a temporary import tax used to protect domestic producers from a sudden increase in imports that causes or threatens serious injury to the domestic industry.
Unlike ordinary customs duty, a safeguard measure is introduced following a trade-remedy investigation and applies to specified products for a defined period.
India's safeguard measures on certain flat steel products have developed as follows:
Period | Safeguard Duty Development |
April 2025 | A provisional safeguard duty of 12% was introduced on specified flat steel imports. |
December 2025 | A definitive safeguard duty was introduced for three years, with rates scheduled to decline over time. |
October 2026 | The applicable rate is 11.5%, with no additional increase announced in the October 7 reports. |
*The definitive measure follows a declining schedule, so buyers should check the rate applicable on the actual import date.
The safeguard duty on steel is separate from regular customs duties and other trade-remedy measures. Its impact depends on the product classification, applicable exclusions and prevailing import regulations.
Which Steel Products Are Covered (and Which Are Not)?
The safeguard measure targets specified non-alloy and alloy flat steel products. It does not apply uniformly to every steel product imported into India.
Products Covered by the Duty
The covered categories include:
Hot-rolled flat products: Used in fabrication, structural components, and industrial manufacturing.
Cold-rolled flat products: Common in automotive components, appliances and precision sheet metal fabrication.
Metallic-coated flat products: Including specified zinc-coated steel used in construction and manufacturing.
Colour-coated flat products: Used for roofing, cladding and prefabricated building components.
These categories are relevant to buyers sourcing HRPO steel, cold-rolled sheets, galvanised sheets and pre-painted galvanised steel products. However, coverage depends on the exact tariff classification and product specification, rather than the commercial product name alone.
Products Excluded from the Duty
Several specialised steel categories fall outside the scope of the safeguard measure, including:
Stainless steel: Stainless flat products are outside this particular safeguard duty.
CRGO steel: Grain-oriented electrical steel used in transformers is excluded.
Tinplate: Specified tin-coated products are excluded.
Other specialised products: Certain grades and product specifications are exempt under the notification.
For stainless steel buyers, this exclusion is particularly relevant. The current safeguard duty does not cover stainless steel coils, sheets and plates, so their import costs and pricing trends need to be assessed separately from duty-covered carbon steel products.
Why Steel Imports Are Still Rising
Despite protective measures, the figures for steel imports in India indicate that overseas supply remains an important part of the domestic market.
During April to August 2026, India reportedly remained a net importer of finished steel. Imports increased by approximately 29.5% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, while China accounted for around 31.8% of incoming finished steel.
Several factors can influence import demand:
Price differences: Overseas material may remain competitive after freight and applicable duties.
Grade availability: Some manufacturers require specifications that are not readily available domestically.
Supply schedules: Importers may source material internationally to meet production deadlines.
Industrial demand: Manufacturing and infrastructure activity continue to support steel consumption.
Trade arrangements: Product origin and applicable trade measures influence landed costs.
On 25 June 2026, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot-rolled flat steel products from China, Japan and Russia, following an application by domestic steel producers alleging injury from dumped imports.
That investigation is separate from the safeguard measure. Buyers tracking steel import duty from China should distinguish between safeguard duties, ordinary customs duties, and any product-specific anti-dumping measures.
How This Affects Steel Prices in India
The decision to avoid additional import restrictions may help preserve competitive pressure from overseas suppliers. However, it does not mean domestic steel prices will immediately decline.
Large Indian steelmakers have reportedly started increasing local flat steel base prices for October 2026, following the price movement seen in September.
The outlook for steel prices in India in October 2026 depends on several competing factors:
Import competition: International offers can influence domestic price negotiations.
Raw material costs: Changes in coking coal and other input prices affect production economics.
Domestic demand: Infrastructure, automotive, and manufacturing orders influence purchasing activity.
Mill pricing decisions: Domestic producers may revise base prices according to market conditions.
Inventory levels: Distributor stocks and purchasing cycles can affect short-term availability.
Will Steel Prices Go Down in India?
The question of whether steel prices will go down in India has no definite answer based on the October 7 announcement alone.
Holding the safeguard duty steady may limit additional import-related cost pressure, but domestic prices can still rise if demand strengthens or production costs increase.
For a practical steel price forecast for India in 2026, buyers should track mill price announcements, import volumes, raw material costs and demand trends rather than relying on a single policy decision.
What Steel Buyers Should Do Now
October's policy development is a useful reminder that purchasing decisions should reflect the specific steel product, applicable duties, and delivery requirements.
For manufacturers and procurement teams, these steps deserve attention:
Separate purchasing plans: Evaluate duty-covered carbon steel flat products and stainless steel requirements independently.
Compare landed costs: Include product price, freight, insurance, customs duty, and applicable trade-remedy duties when comparing imports with domestic quotations.
Check product classification: Confirm the relevant HSN code and safeguard notification before calculating import costs.
Review documentation: Request applicable Mill Test Certificates and confirm the required material standards.
Plan delivery schedules: Discuss stock availability, order quantities, and expected dispatch dates before committing to production timelines.
Monitor market changes: Track domestic mill price revisions and new trade-remedy announcements.
A clear understanding of how import duty affects steel prices can help procurement teams compare quotations and avoid unexpected costs.
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FAQs
What is the current safeguard duty on steel in India?
The current steel safeguard duty in India is 11.5% in October 2026 for specified covered flat steel products. The rate forms part of a declining three-year safeguard measure and does not apply to every steel product.
Does the safeguard duty apply to stainless steel?
No, the current safeguard duty on steel does not cover stainless steel products. Stainless steel imports may still be subject to ordinary customs duties and other applicable trade measures.
Will steel prices go down in India in 2026?
Steel prices in India may decline if import competition increases or domestic demand weakens, but a reduction is not certain. The steel price forecast for India in 2026 depends on raw material costs, mill pricing, imports, and market demand.
Which countries does India import the most steel from?
China is one of India's largest sources of finished steel imports, accounting for approximately 31.8% during April to August 2026. Other important suppliers include South Korea and Japan, although rankings vary by reporting period and product category.
How does import duty affect domestic steel prices?
Import duty increases the landed cost of foreign steel, which can reduce its price advantage over domestic material. Higher duties may support domestic steel prices, while lower duties or unchanged restrictions can preserve competition from imported products.
References
Reuters. (2026). India steel ministry unlikely to seek new curbs on cheap imports, government source says.
Ministry of Steel. (2026). India's Steel Demand Stays Robust in Apr–Aug 2026. Press Information Bureau, Government of India.
Ministry of Finance, Department of Revenue. (2025). Notification No. 02/2025-Customs (SG): Safeguard duty on imports of non-alloy and alloy steel flat products. The Gazette of India, G.S.R. 931(E).
Directorate General of Trade Remedies. (2026, June 25). Initiation of anti-dumping investigation concerning imports of “Hot Rolled Flat Products of Alloy or Non-Alloy Steel” originating in or exported from China PR, Japan and Russia (F. No. 6/26/2026-DGTR). Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India.
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